The Israel-Iran War Will Radically Alter the Middle East

This war between Israel and Iran will likely be seen as one of the most pivotal moments that drastically transformed the makeup of the Middle East region for generations to come.

By
Etietop Akpabio
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By Khamenei.ir, CC BY 4.0, Link

On Friday morning, the world woke up to the shocking news that the state of Israel conducted a series of airstrikes against Iran, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities as well as high-ranking members of Iran’s military. There had been plenty of rumours and speculation that Israel had been planning to unleash an attack aimed at Iran in the days prior. We would even see the United States begin to evacuate diplomatic staff and some military personnel from the region prior to the Israel attack. However, there had been no clear indication that suggested this attack would certainly take place, so it still came as a shock.

For many decades now, the state of Israel has viewed Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat to its very existence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long advocated for Israel and the United States to conduct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities with the aim of ending Tehran’s nuclear program. This attack by Israel comes at a tim when the Iranian regime is probably at its weakest ithas ever been throughout its reign of the Islamic revolutionary government, so Netanyahu would have seen this as the best time possible for an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Over the course of the last year and a half – ever since the October 7th attacks against Israel by Hamas, we have seen the Israeli government go to war against virtually all the Iranian-backed militias operating around Israel. For the last nearly two years that Israel has been caught up in its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, there has also been a constant barrage of missiles fired back and forth between the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and the Houthi Rebels in Yemen and the full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah.

The war between Israel and Hezbollah, saw nearly all of Hezbollah’s senior leadership wiped out. Including the founder and longtime head of Hezbollah – Hassan Nasrallah – who had headed Hezbollah for over 3 decades before he was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike. Moreover, much of Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities have been obliterated in the fighting against Israel, significantly degrading Hezbollah’s military capabilities.

It is impossible to think about these attacks against Iran taking place without the context of the Israeli war against Hezbollah and the death of Hassan Nasrallah. Following the October 7th attack and the commencement of the brutal war in Gaza there would be a constant exchange of airstrikes taking place between the IDF and Hezbollah. For decades, Hezbollah had been the main proxy force used by the Iranian government to project power in southern Lebanon and Syria, as well as against the state of Israel. 

For many decades now, Hezbollah has been seen as the most powerful non-state actor in the world. Prior to the full-scale war breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah last year – in September 2024 – Hezbollah had been seen as perhaps the most existential threat to the existence of the state of Israel. For months, we heard analysts talk about the hundreds of thousands of rockets Hezbollah had pointed at the state of Israel, ready to fire at a moment’s notice. The general consensus had been that Hezbollah had the firepower necessary to overpower Israel’s Iron Dome system in the event of a war between the two.

I distinctly remember reading articles describing the likely events of a full-scale war breaking out and the potential damage that could be caused all around Israel. Many such articles would describe in dramatic detail scenes of Israeli cities being laid to waste by a constant barrage of rocket fire emanating from southern Lebanon. There had even been genuine questions raised about whether the IDF really even had the ability to defeat Hezbollah in the scenario of a full-on conflict breaking out.

However, in September 2024, we would see that scenario play out in real time right in front of our eyes as the fighting would significantly escalate into a full-on war. And as a result, we saw with our own eyes that the previous assumptions and predictions about this conflict were spectacularly incorrect. It is clear now in hindsight that the military capabilities of Hezbollah had been dramatically overstated. Hezbollah was not able to deal anywhere near as much damage to the state of Israel as had been theorised. Likewise, their defences had not been strong enough to repel Israeli forces’ advances into southern Lebanon.

Within just a few weeks, the IDF would take out nearly all high-ranking members of Hezbollah, including their founder and leader Hassan Nasrallah, and his successor. The IDF would then conduct a ground invasion into southern Lebanon, where they would continue their assault on Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, significantly dismantling Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities. While Hezbollah did manage to conduct airstrikes on Israeli territory, there had not been the kind of devastating assaults that had been previously imagined. 

By November 2024, a ceasefire agreement would be reached between Israel and a significantly diminished Hezbollah. Hezbollah would be left with its founder and longtime leader dead, alongside many of its senior leadership, and much of its military equipment destroyed. Within a matter of months, Iran’s most valuable proxy force in its battle against the state of Israel would be gone. The downfall of Hezbollah coupled with the death of Hassan Nasrallah, would have major ramifications for the entire Middle East.

Unlike the Houthis in Yemen or even Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah was the proxy force that should have had the power to deal the most significant amount of damage to Israel. Therefore, Hezbollah could serve as a sort of deterrent for Iran from military action from Israel or even the United States. However, today thhe fear of a potentially catastrophic military confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel is no longer a threat to the state of Israel if it were to decide to launch an attack against Iran directly. 

The fall of Hezbollah in Lebanon would also play a role in the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Hezbollah fighters had for many years been involved in the civil war in Syria on the side of the Assad regime, a major ally of the Iranian government. When rebel forces led their major offensive aimed at toppling Assad, the Syrian government no longer had the ability to rely as much on Hezbollah militants to fight alongside the Syrian government forces to repel the advancement by the Syrian rebels. 

As a result, we would see another one of Iran’s major allies in the region toppling as Assad would flee Syria, and his government would be completely overthrown. Following the collapse of Assad’s regime, Benjamin Netanyahu would even go to the Syrian border and take responsibility for the fall of Assad’s regime in a video statement published online, stating it only happened as a direct result of Israel’s actions against Hezbollah. The fall of Assad only compounded the weakened state of Iran’s influence across the region. 

With Hezbollah and Hamas largely out of the picture and a new regime in Syria, no longer as hostile to Israel (and no longer allied with Iran), the groundwork for an Israeli strike against Iran had been laid. To make matters even better – from an Israeli perspective – Iran’s air defence capabilities have also been severely damaged in Israeli strikes against Iran in October 2024. After the deaths of Hasan Nasrallah and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh (the former leader of Hamas) in Tehran. Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles against Israel in retaliation. Israel would then launch its own retaliatory attack against Iran, targeting Iran’s military sites and air defence systems in the process. 

All of these events unfolding over the course of the last year and a half have essentially left Iran at the most vulnerable it has been since the Islamic revolution. Netanyahu has for pretty much decades at this point has been calling for a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. So it was unlikely that Netanyahu would pass up on this opportunity to conduct a strike on Iran when it is at such a weakened state and when the threat of Hezbollah has been in large part neutralised in its ability to harm Israel.

Another major contributing factor to Israel’s decision to strike Iran now had to have been the ongoing negotiations between the Trump administration and Iranian officials about the Iran nuclear program. The Iran nuclear deal – JCPOA – had been incredibly unpopular among Israelis pretty much from the onset. The 2015 deal involved Iran being allowed to continue with its nuclear program in a limited capacity, and in return there would be a relief in the international sanctions placed on Iran. After the deal had been signed, a poll found that an overwhelming 70% of Israelis opposed the deal, with only a poultry 10% of Israelis supporting it. 

Netanyahu would make his displeasure of the JCPOA known, calling the deal a mistake of historic proportions. Netanyahu stated that world leaders were taking a gamble on international security by agreeing to the Iran nuclear deal. The Israeli Prime Minister would reiterate that his government was fully committed to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and that dedication remains despite world leaders agreeing to signing onto the JCPOA. 

Just three years later in 2018 during Donald Trump’s first term, the United States would pull out of the JCPOA, as part of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran. The ultimate goal of Trump’s sanctions campaign against Iran was to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal. Trump has on many occasions stated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and he believed that the JCPOA paved the path towards a nuclear-armed Iran due to Iran allegedly violating the terms of the agreement on the enrichment of Uranium. A sentiment that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu certainly shared with Trump.

Now in Trump’s second term, the administration began negotiations with Iran once again for a nuclear deal. However, this time round, it appears that members of the Trump administration do not share the same resolve as had previously existed during Trump’s first term. Steve Witkoff, Trump Middle East envoy, has suggested that the United States may agree to the Iranian regime again maintaining part of its nuclear program as part of a deal between the US and Iran similar to the terms previously agreed on in the JCPOA.

Such a deal being signed once again between the United States and Iran would simply be unacceptable to the Israel government and would have undoubtedly compounded their decision to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities. And on Friday morning, the world would wake up to the news that Israel had done just that as they had begun conducting strikes against Iran’s military and nuclear program, as well as conducting targeted assassinations of top Iranian nuclear scientists and high ranking military officials. 

Netanyahu would state that the Israeli military operation – named operation “Rising Lion” – against Iran’s nuclear facilities would continue, and were predicted to take place over the course of the next two weeks. In his statement, Netanyahu claimed that Iran already has enough enriched uranium to make 9 atom bombs and that Iran is working to weaponise it’s enriched uranium. Netanyahu warned that Iran now has the ability to produce a nuclear weapon within a short time; therefore its was imperative that Israel had act.

In response to the Israel strikes, Iran has already launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones towards Israel. Ayatollah Khamenei has rebuked the Israeli government in a series of statements declaring that Iran will respond severely to the actions of the Israeli military as well as acknowledge the deaths of high ranking military commanders in the Iranian military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

It is unclear whether Israel has the ability to actually take out all of Iran’s nuclear facilities on its own. Some of Iran’s nuclear facilities are reported to be constructed deep underground and within mountains. Many analysts conclude that the IDF currently does not have the capabilities necessary to be able to take out these facilities on their own. Most analysts state that the best Israel can do is delay Iran’s nuclear program, Israel would therefore require American involvement or weaponry to be able to penetrate deep enough to destroy the hidden underground Iranian nuclear facilities.

However, Netanyahu is today dealing with a very different Donald Trump, who has sought to potrait himself as a peacemaker asound the world. Moreover, Trump’s administration is staffed with incredibly isolationist individuals, including US Vice President JD Vance, who are vehemently against any kind of US involvement in overseas conflicts. Likewise, this isolationism has become widespread among very prominent far-right influencers such as Tucker Carlson, Charlie Kirk, etc., who would view US involvement in this conflict as a major betrayal of their support of Donald Trump’s campaign for President.

We are in the early days of this conflict, and it is not at all clear how this is going to end. Already so many historic things have happened since the October 2023, such as the war in Gaza, the death of Hassan Nasrallah and the degradation of Hezbollah, the deaths of Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar and this war between Iran and Israel. It is likely that when historians look back at this moment in time, the October 7th attack by Hamas on Israel would be seen as one of the most pivotal moments that drastically transformed the makeup of the Middle East region for generations to come.

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