It has now been confirmed by the African Democratic Congress (ADC) that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has officially obtained a presidential nomination form ahead of the 2027 Nigerian presidential election.
The announcement comes as little surprise. Atiku has publicly expressed his intention to contest for the presidency once again for several months now. However, the development is politically significant because it appears to put to rest speculation that Atiku might defect to the National Democratic Congress (NDC), following the defections of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso.
If Atiku announcing another presidential run creates the feeling that he has been contesting forever, that impression is not entirely inaccurate. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, Atiku has participated in virtually every presidential election cycle either as a candidate, running mate, or primary contender.
The Beginning: Vice President in 1999
In the 1999 presidential election that marked Nigeria’s transition back to democratic rule, Atiku ran alongside Olusegun Obasanjo as the vice-presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Their ticket won the election, and Atiku subsequently served two terms as Vice President between 1999 and 2007.
2007: Atiku’s First Presidential Bid
Following the end of the Obasanjo administration, Atiku sought to succeed his former boss as president. However, after failing to secure the PDP nomination, he defected to the Action Congress and contested the 2007 presidential election.
The election proved disappointing for Atiku. He finished in third place with roughly 7.5% of the vote, behind Muhammadu Buhari and eventual winner Umaru Musa Yar’Adua.
For the first time, Atiku discovered how difficult it would be to convert his elite political influence into nationwide electoral victory.
Years of Primary Defeats
Despite the setback, Atiku remained determined to pursue the presidency.
Ahead of the 2011 election, he returned to the PDP and challenged incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan for the party’s presidential ticket. Jonathan had assumed office following the death of President Yar’Adua in 2010.
However, Atiku lost heavily in the PDP primary, with Jonathan benefiting from the advantages of incumbency and strong support within the ruling party establishment.
In 2014, Atiku once again defected, this time to the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), which had emerged as the main opposition coalition against the PDP government.
Yet history repeated itself. Atiku failed to secure the APC presidential nomination, losing once again to Muhammadu Buhari, whose strong northern support base and anti-corruption image made him the dominant opposition figure of the era.
2019: Atiku vs Buhari
The 2019 election finally saw Atiku and Buhari face each other directly in a presidential contest.
Representing the PDP, Atiku mounted one of the strongest opposition campaigns against the incumbent Buhari administration. Nevertheless, Buhari retained power, winning 19 states and approximately 55% of the vote compared to Atiku’s 41%.
Although Atiku lost, the result demonstrated that he remained one of the few Nigerian politicians capable of building a genuinely nationwide political coalition.
2023: The Three-Way Contest
After coming closer than ever to the presidency in 2019, Atiku once again emerged as the PDP presidential candidate for the 2023 election.
This time, however, the political landscape had fundamentally changed.
Rather than a two-horse race, the election evolved into a three-way contest involving APC candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Atiku, and the rapidly rising Peter Obi of the Labour Party.
Obi’s candidacy, particularly among younger urban voters, disrupted the traditional PDP voting coalition that Atiku had relied upon for years. In the end, Tinubu won the election, while Atiku finished second with roughly 29% of the vote and victories in 12 states.
For many analysts, the 2023 election marked the first clear sign that Nigerian politics may be gradually moving away from the long-established PDP-APC dominance toward a more fragmented and competitive multi-party environment.
The Road to 2027
Over the past year, it briefly appeared that Atiku and Peter Obi might unite behind a single opposition platform against President Tinubu ahead of 2027. Both politicians moved toward the ADC, fueling speculation about a possible coalition.
However, disagreements over who would emerge as the coalition’s presidential candidate reportedly strained relations between both camps. Obi eventually left the ADC and joined the NDC alongside Rabiu Kwankwaso, with speculation suggesting that Kwankwaso could emerge as Obi’s running mate.
As a result, the 2027 election increasingly appears likely to recreate the dynamics of 2023, with Tinubu, Obi, and Atiku once again leading rival political camps.
Can Atiku Still Win?
Much like his longtime rival Muhammadu Buhari, Atiku appears determined to continue contesting for the presidency for as long as necessary.
Indeed, Buhari himself unsuccessfully contested multiple presidential elections before finally winning in 2015 and securing re-election in 2019. In fact, the 2023 election was the first presidential race since Nigeria’s return to democracy in which Buhari did not appear on the ballot.
Atiku will undoubtedly hope that persistence eventually produces a similar outcome.
However, significant questions remain about whether his political moment has already passed. At nearly 80 years old by 2027, concerns about age, energy, and the demands of governing Africa’s most populous nation are likely to become increasingly prominent.
At the same time, many younger Nigerians appear more attracted to Peter Obi’s image as a reformist outsider representing generational change rather than the traditional political establishment that Atiku has long been associated with.
Still, Nigerian politics has repeatedly shown that experience, elite alliances, regional bargaining, and political resilience remain enormously important. Few politicians in modern Nigerian history have demonstrated Atiku’s ability to remain politically relevant across multiple decades, parties, and electoral cycles.
Whether that persistence eventually leads him to the presidency remains one of the defining questions heading into 2027.
