The Trump administration’s decision earlier this year to launch military strikes against Iran will likely go down as one of the most consequential foreign policy decisions of Donald Trump’s presidency. The global impact of the conflict has been immense. Oil prices surged in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak of hostilities, inflationary pressures intensified in many countries, and a conflict that initially appeared to involve only the United States, Israel, and Iran has increasingly drawn other Middle Eastern states into its orbit.
Now, several months into the war, it is worth asking a simple question: what has actually been achieved? And perhaps more importantly, how might this conflict eventually come to an end?
The memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran now appears to have joined a growing list of failed ceasefire and peace initiatives since the conflict began. Despite repeated public assurances from President Trump that a breakthrough was imminent, the fighting has continued. Diplomatic efforts have so far failed to produce a lasting settlement, leaving the region trapped in an increasingly dangerous cycle of military escalation.
At the same time, it is difficult to argue that all of the war’s stated objectives have been achieved. The greatest military success has undoubtedly been the extensive damage inflicted upon Iran’s nuclear programme. Repeated strikes against nuclear facilities have significantly degraded Iran’s enrichment capacity and delayed its programme. However, degrading a programme is not the same as eliminating it. Without a sustained presence on the ground to verify that facilities have been dismantled and nuclear material secured, it is impossible to conclude that Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been permanently ended. The Trump administration has also made it clear that it has little appetite for deploying American ground forces inside Iran, limiting the extent to which military gains can be consolidated.
A similar debate surrounds Iran’s missile and drone capabilities. While there is little doubt that they have suffered considerable damage, Iran has continued to launch missiles and drones against Israel and American military installations in the region. This suggests that, although weakened, its capacity to project force has not been eliminated.
Beyond the military objectives, the broader consequences of the conflict have been substantial. One of the most immediate global impacts has been the disruption to energy markets. Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, have driven up fuel prices and contributed to renewed inflation across much of the world. Developing countries, many of which were already struggling with debt, food insecurity, and sluggish economic growth, have been particularly vulnerable to these economic shocks.
The conflict has also spread far beyond its original participants. American military installations across the Middle East have repeatedly come under attack, while regional governments have found themselves increasingly involved in efforts to protect their own security and strategic interests. What began as a confrontation involving three states now threatens the stability of an entire region.
Perhaps the greatest concern is that there remains no obvious path toward a durable peace. Military operations can destroy infrastructure and degrade military capabilities, but they rarely resolve the political disputes that gave rise to a conflict in the first place. As negotiations repeatedly stall and new ceasefire efforts collapse, both sides appear to be settling into a prolonged war of attrition.
That raises the central question: what has ultimately been gained? Iran’s military capabilities have certainly been weakened, particularly its nuclear infrastructure. Yet the programme has not been conclusively eliminated, the conflict continues, regional instability has intensified, and the global economy has absorbed another major shock. If the objective was to produce a safer and more stable Middle East, it is difficult to argue that this goal has been realised.
Instead, the war appears to have created a situation in which military successes have been accompanied by mounting economic costs, growing regional instability, and no clear political settlement. Unless diplomacy can eventually succeed where military force has not, the conflict risks becoming another prolonged war whose consequences extend far beyond the battlefield.
Finally, perhaps the most overlooked aspect of this conflict has been the plight of the Iranian people themselves. For decades, ordinary Iranians have borne the greatest burden of the regime’s policies. They have endured the economic hardship brought about by international sanctions, lived under persistent political repression, and now face the devastating consequences of war, including the loss of civilian lives and the destruction of homes and infrastructure.
Regardless of one’s view of the Iranian government or the decision to confront it militarily, it is ultimately the Iranian people who have paid the highest price. As the conflict drags on with no clear path to a lasting peace, they continue to find themselves caught between an authoritarian regime, foreign military intervention, and an international community that has struggled to deliver a durable diplomatic solution. If there is one lesson to be drawn from this war, it is that wars have a habit of leaving ordinary people to bear extraordinary costs long after the headlines have faded.
Across the continent
- Tanzania has deployed security forces across its major cities as the one year aniversary of its disputed election and deadly protests approaches
- Aleast 120 people have died of a Cholera outbreak in South Sudan according to the World Health Organisation
- South Africa, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Algeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo have been eliminated from the World Cup in the round of 32
- Morroco is the only African country to advance to the roudn of 16 following its defeat of the Netherlands in their round of 32 clash
- Cape Verde and Egypt are the last African nations set to compete in the round of 32 later today.
Recommended Reads
When is Foreign Intervention Justified? – on foreign intervention and the the plight of Iranian civiliana
African Trends: Iran War Causes Spike in Oil Prices – on the rise in fuel prices caused by the Iran war
How Corruption Makes Every Crisis Worse in Africa – on how corruption affects government responses to crises across Africa
